Global agri-food value chains for cereals in the MENA region, with
mapping of players, trade flows, and product exchange
July 2025
Mapping of players, trade flows, and product exchange in the MENA region
Our partner Collegio Carlo Alberto (CCA), working in collaboration with the Economic Research Forum (ERF) within the STAPLES Work Package named “Understanding external stressors and shocks” (under the PRIMA Partnership Programme), authored an article based on an initial analytical study of global agri-food value chains for cereals, among six Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries — Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia — over the last two decades (1995–2023).
Key findings and insights of the MENA region’s cereal value chains.
In the context of cereals, the cereal value chain includes the entire process, from growing the grain to delivering the final product to consumers. The study focuses on selected stages of this chain such as primary production (cultivation), and processing and transformation (milling).
The article provides a comprehensive assessment of cereal trade in these countries, analysing disaggregated data over the two decades to highlight differences and similarities in exports, imports, participation in global and regional value chains, centrality, and shifts in trading partners, examined across different levels of processing.
Cereal dependence and agricultural constraints
Cereals form the backbone of diets in the MENA region countries, with wheat alone accounting for more than half of the total calorie intake in many nations. However, the region’s arid climate, limited arable land, and water scarcity constrain local agricultural production, making MENA heavily reliant on imports to meet domestic demand, despite being cereal producers and exporters.
High import concentration and cereal trade risks
As one of the major sources of vulnerability to external shocks is high import market concentration—i.e., a country’s reliance on a small number of suppliers—the report examines its evolution for cereal imports by processing level (unprocessed, semi-processed, and processed) across the countries under study. The data show a rather high import market concentration in 2023, ranging from 40% to above 69% of cereal imports (for Jordan and Egypt, respectively) being supplied by the top three supplying countries.
Trade performance and vulnerabilities
The analysis of the trade performance and structure of cereal trade in the selected countries shows that cereal supply chains in the region are vulnerable to a wide range of stressors, some of which will be explored in future in-depth reports. These stressors can disrupt production, transportation, trade, storage, and distribution, putting pressure on already fragile food systems. The most significant stressors include geopolitical instability and armed conflict, global market volatility, climate change and environmental stress, and supply chain disruptions.
