Takeaways for Dashboard and Decision Support System 

Takeaways for Dashboard and Decision Support System 

 
Excerpt for Deliverable 2.3

May 2026 
Author: Università di Scienze gastronomiche di Pollenzo

 

This article presents the main findings from Tasks 2.1 (Resilience enhancing trade policies) and Task 2.2 (Private and Public Stocks and Storage) of the Work Package 2 by the title of “Developing innovative solutions and evidence-based recommendations (Global value chain)”, translating their outputs into operational insights for the design and implementation of the Decision Support System (DSS) within the STAPLES project. 

WP2 focuses on two interconnected domains related to food system resilience in the MENA region: international cereal trade and market access (Task 2.1), and procurement strategies for strategic reserves and collective storage (Task 2.2). Both tasks contribute to the development of analytical tools supporting evidence-based decision-making across different stakeholder groups, including public authorities, policymakers, agri-food firms, cooperatives, and other actors along the cereal value chain. 

 
Market Attractiveness Index 

Task 2.1 developed the Market Attractiveness Index (MAI), a composite indicator designed to assess and rank destination countries from the perspective of cereal exporters, with particular reference to European agri-food firms. 

The MAI is structured around two main pillars: 

  • trade costs;  
  • domestic market conditions.  

The index integrates indicators drawn from publicly available international datasets, including the World Development Indicators, CEPII, and FAOSTAT. It applies z-score standardisation and offers alternative aggregation approaches, including equal weighting and factor-analytic methods. The resulting composite scores enable country ranking, sub-pillar decomposition, and temporal comparison. 

Once integrated into the STAPLES DSS, the MAI will support exporters and policymakers in market prioritisation, trade strategy formulation, and evidence-based decision-making. 

Storage and Strategic Reserve Decision-Support Functions 

Task 2.2 developed two complementary DSS functions. 

The first is the storage advisor, designed to support smallholder farmers, cooperatives, and warehouse managers in deciding whether to sell grain immediately or store it for future sale. The tool estimates break-even price thresholds and compares them with expected future prices. It also incorporates an alternative scenario based on the use of grain as collateral under a Warehouse Receipt System (WRS), enabling access to credit under potentially favourable conditions. 

The second is the strategic reserves advisor, a forecasting tool that estimates national wheat stocks in terms of months and days of consumption coverage. This allows policymakers to assess reserve adequacy against internationally recognised benchmarks and to quantify potential stock gaps under alternative consumption scenarios. 

Both tools rely on data from established public sources, including USDA, FAS, PSD, and FAOSTAT, while also allowing users to input local estimates to improve contextual accuracy. 

 
Advancements

Tasks 2.1 and 2.2 provide an integrated methodological and operational contribution to the development of the STAPLES DSS, offering complementary frameworks to address the complexity of cereal markets and food security challenges in the MENA region. 

The MAI functions and the storage advisory function are currently at an advanced stage of development and are planned for full integration into the DSS by Month 36 (M36). The strategic reserves function is already available in a preliminary version. 

Future improvements include the continuous update and expansion of underlying datasets and the integration of sensitivity analysis tools within the DSS to assess the robustness of results under alternative assumptions. 

Conclusions

Deliverable 2.3 represents an important step towards the implementation of the STAPLES Decision Support System by consolidating the outcomes of WP2 into operational decision-support functionalities. By combining methodologies addressing international cereal trade, grain storage decisions, and strategic reserve management, it contributes to a comprehensive decision-support framework capable of serving stakeholders operating at different levels of the cereal value chain. This integrated approach supports the broader objectives of STAPLES to strengthen evidence-based decision-making and improve food system resilience in the MENA region. 

This article was carried out within the framework of the STAPLES project, part of the PRIMA Programme, supported by the European Union under Grant Agreement No. 2333. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the PRIMA Foundation or the European Union, and neither of them can be held responsible for the information contained.​


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