Food security: The Strait of Hormuz and MENA vulnerability
Iacopo Maria Taddei
Collegio Carlo Alberto (CCA), Turin
Giorgia Giovannetti
Department of Economics, University of Florence
Collegio Carlo Alberto (CCA), Turin
The content published on this website is an excerpt from the original article recently published by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) as part of its Annual Yearbook. The full publication is available on the official IEMed website.
Geopolitical shocks and food security
Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have highlighted the vulnerability of global food systems to external shocks. For Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, these risks are particularly significant due to their strong dependence on international energy, fertiliser and cereal markets.
The article “Food Security: The Strait of Hormuz and MENA Vulnerability”, authored by Iacopo Maria Taddei and Giorgia Giovannetti within the framework of the STAPLES Project, analyses how geopolitical tensions can affect food security through interconnected global markets.
The Strait of Hormuz and fertiliser markets
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical corridor for global energy and fertiliser trade. Disruptions in this maritime route can lead to higher oil and natural gas prices, with consequences extending to agricultural production.
Natural gas is a key input for producing nitrogen fertilisers such as ammonia and urea. Higher energy and fertiliser prices can therefore increase agricultural production costs and encourage farmers to reduce fertiliser use, potentially affecting crop yields and food availability.
These effects are particularly relevant for MENA countries, where several economies combine significant dependence on fertiliser-intensive agriculture with reliance on food imports.
MENA’s exposure to global cereal trade
The analysis also highlights the region’s dependence on international cereal markets. Countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia rely on imports from major global cereal exporters.
Egypt, for example, is the world’s largest wheat importer and depends significantly on supplies from major cereal hubs such as Russia Russia, Ukraine and Brazil. This creates exposure not only to direct disruptions but also to indirect shocks transmitted through interconnected global trade networks.
The article’s analysis of fertiliser and unprocessed cereal trade networks demonstrates how a disruption affecting production in one part of the world can ultimately have consequences for food security in MENA, even where direct trade links are limited.
Multiple channels of vulnerability
Food security is also affected through channels beyond agricultural trade. The article examines the role of remittances, which are particularly important for countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. Instability in Gulf economies could affect employment opportunities for migrant workers and reduce remittance flows, adding pressure on households already facing higher food and energy costs.
Together, these interconnected factors can contribute to greater food price volatility and reinforce existing vulnerabilities across the region.
Strengthening resilience
The findings underline the importance of strengthening the resilience of MENA food systems through diversified import sources, improved market monitoring, contingency planning and regional cooperation. In the longer term, increasing domestic agricultural capacity, investing in sustainable fertiliser production and accelerating the transition towards renewable energy can help reduce exposure to volatile global markets.
By examining how geopolitical, energy and trade shocks propagate through global food systems, the analysis contributes to the STAPLES Project’s broader objective of identifying pathways towards more resilient, sustainable and food-secure food systems in the Mediterranean and MENA region.
The full original article is published on the IEMed official website.
This article was carried out within the framework of the STAPLES project, part of the PRIMA Programme, supported by the European Union under Grant Agreement No. 2333. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the PRIMA Foundation or the European Union, and neither of them can be held responsible for the information contained.
