XXIV AISSEC Scientific Conference
8-9 June 2026
Ancona – Italy
STAPLES showcases research on Cereal Value Chain Resilience at the XXIV AISSEC scientific conference
On 8–9 June 2026, the STAPLES project participated in the XXIV AISSEC Scientific Conference, held at Marche Polytechnic University in Ancona, Italy. The conference, entitled Economic Development in the Era of Geopolitical Fragmentation, gathered researchers and practitioners to discuss how geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, climate change, digitalization, and technological transformation are reshaping economic development worldwide.
As part of the conference track on Trade and Value Chains, STAPLES organized the panel “GVC Resilience and the Cereal Supply Chain in the MENA Region”, chaired by Marta Marson (Politecnico di Milano). The session presented recent findings from the project, focusing on the resilience of cereal value chains in Egypt and Morocco and on policy solutions to strengthen food security across the Southern Mediterranean region.
GVC Resilience and the cereal supply chain in the MENA region.
The objective of this panel was to examine an important and policy relevant issue for the MENA region, which is the resilience of cereals’ supply chain in the MENA region, with a special focus on Egypt and Morocco.
The PRIMA Programme, supported by the European Union as funding body of for STAPLES, attempts to co-create and spread new knowledge about the factors of instability linked to cereal GVCs and the possible solutions that the actors along the domestic supply chain and policymakers can adopt to reduce and manage the shocks when they occur.
Papers presented:
The papers presented during the session further illustrated the interdisciplinary and policy-oriented approach of the STAPLES project, combining trade analysis, food security, supply chain resilience, and decision-support tools.
“Global agri-food value chains for cereals in the MENA region: players, trade flows, and products”
Authors: Alessia Amighini (Collegio Carlo Alberto), Giorgia Giovannetti (Collegio Carlo Alberto), Fida Karam (ERF), Amr Khafagy (ERF), Iacopo-Maria Taddei (Collegio Carlo Alberto), Chahir Zaki (ERF).
Over the past two decades, cereal value chains in the MENA region have been shaped by a structural vulnerability: a strong and persistent demand for unprocessed cereals alongside very limited cereal exports. Countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia remain heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic consumption needs—especially for staples like wheat, maize, barley, and rice. In particular, Egypt stands out as the world’s largest wheat importer, relying predominantly on few suppliers, notably Russia and Ukraine, despite recent diversification efforts.
Against this backdrop, STAPLES examines how the structure of cereal trade networks contributes to the region’s vulnerability, seeking to inform policies aimed at strengthening food security and resilience to external shocks. Our analysis tracks cereals across their value chain—from primary production to processing and final consumption—showing that unprocessed cereals dominate import flows, while exports are largely limited to processed products.
Network evidence reveals that imports are highly concentrated: in 2023, the top three suppliers accounted for between 40% and 69% of total cereal imports. Such patterns underscore a structural dependence on a small set of suppliers in geopolitically sensitive regions, leaving MENA economies exposed to trade disruptions, price shocks, and climate-related risks
Speaker: Iacopo-Maria Taddei
“Why does trade policy matter for cereals supply chain?”
Authors: Fida Karam (ERF), Amr Khafagy (ERF), Chahir Zaki (ERF).
MENA economies have run persistent cereal trade deficits, driven by constrained arable land and water, climate pressures, and rapid population growth. In this regard, STAPLES aims to identify trade policies that contribute to improved food security in the region by mitigating the impact of trade barriers, disruptions and price shocks.
We focus on four intertwined dimensions that shape MENA’s cereal trade: (1) tariffs, (2) non-tariff measures (NTMs), (3) the regulatory environment for services such as logistics, transport, finance, legal, and information services, and (4) the depth and coverage of trade agreements. Our findings suggest that, average cereal tariffs vary widely across the region, from near zero in some liberal systems to roughly 20% in more protectionist ones, reflecting different priorities between maintaining food affordability and supporting domestic producers, with many countries opting for low-to-moderate rates under 10%. Non-tariff measures by major exporters increased sharply after 2022, targeting mainly unprocessed cereals and causing significant supply disruption and price pressures on MENA countries, while EU support measures affect costs without closing borders.
Services regulations shape agricultural trade costs and participation in cereal value chains and can further raise cereal prices. Finally, trade agreements offer partial coverage and often exclude sensitive cereals.
Speaker: Chahir Zaki
“Caught between limited production and unreliable import: an integrated early warning tool for cereals supply for Southern Mediterranean countries”
Authors: Marta Marson and Sandra Cesari De Maria (Politecnico di Milano)
Stability is a pillar of food security which does not only require food to be available, accessible and well utilized, but also that these conditions are stable and predictable, stressing the centrality of information. Stability can be put at risk by several domestic and external factors.
MENA countries are particularly exposed to international shocks in cereals’ markets. Based on an extensive review of available IT tools that provide relevant information and early warning, some gaps and need were identified. As food supply and food security depend on the combination of domestic production and import, it is important that the two are considered jointly.
Moreover, shocks of different types are seldom considered together in the same dashboard, while there is a need to consider all the shocks that might impact on staple foods of MENA countries. This should include shocks within MENA countries, like the ones that affect agricultural production, and also external shocks that are global in nature or that occur in countries that are connected to the MENA country through trade of the product of interest and its inputs.
Based on these considerations STAPLES is developing a dashboard to address these gaps with a tool specific for cereals and staple foods and for MENA countries.
Speaker: Marta Marson
“State vs market: securing grains stocks for food security in Egypt and Morocco”
Author: Serena Berisio (Politecnico di Milano)
STAPLES project examines the critical roles of public procurement mechanisms in ensuring the stability of grain supply chains in the MENA region, with a specific focus on Egypt and Morocco. These countries face significant food security challenges due to very high per capita wheat consumption and a structural dependency on imports, leaving them vulnerable to global price volatility, climatic shocks, and geopolitical disruptions.
The document provides a comprehensive analysis of how these nations manage Strategic Grain Reserves (SGRs) to protect vulnerable populations and maintain the continuity of staple food supplies. The analysis highlights two contrasting institutional models for food security management.
Egypt’s State-Centric Model: Egypt operates a highly centralized system where the government, primarily through the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), manages large-scale international tenders and oversees a vast public infrastructure for storage and milling.
Morocco’s Market-Steered Model: Morocco utilizes a public–private partnership (PPP) framework where the state regulates the market and provides financial incentives—such as storage premiums and import restitution mechanisms—while private operators handle the actual procurement and logistics.
The study discusses strengths and weaknesses of the two and recent evolutions.
Speaker: Serena Berisio
“From shock to recovery: firm-level resilience in cereal GVCs in Egypt and Morocco”
Authors: Lucia Piscitello and Marta Vignali (Politecnico di Milano)
Presented by: Marta Vignali
Despite the growing attention to the resilience of agri-food Global Value Chains (GVCs), empirical evidence on how firm-level characteristics shape the resilience capacities from systemic shocks remains scarce, particularly for actors operating in cereal GVC in the MENA region.
Our research, developed within the STAPLES project, investigates the exposure of wheat supply chain actors in Egypt and Morocco to shocks of different nature (economic, geopolitical, climatic, and logistic) and assesses their micro-level resilience capabilities and post-shock performance outcomes.
Drawing on GVC resilience literature, we organize firm-level resilience indicators around three core capabilities: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and restorative capacity. The empirical analysis relies on a structured survey designed ad hoc and administered to the full range of actors along the cereal GVC (farmers, storage operators, processors, and importers) in both countries. Following a pilot testing phase, data were collected through ASCAME and the Chambers of Commerce of Morocco and Egypt, in French and English respectively, maintaining an identical structure to ensure cross-country comparability.
Preliminary results confirm that resilience capabilities are closely related to the structural characteristics of actors’ GVCs, varying significantly across supply chain segments, yet displaying notable similarities between the two countries.
These findings, further elaborated into a decision support tool, will help policymakers and industry stakeholders strengthen firm-level resilience to external shocks, ultimately contributing to the stability and robustness of cereal GVCs in the region.
This article was carried out within the framework of the STAPLES project, part of the PRIMA Programme, supported by the European Union under Grant Agreement No. 2333. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the PRIMA Foundation or the European Union, and neither of them can be held responsible for the information contained.
