Navigating recent crises in the MENA region
Iacopo Maria Taddei
University of Florence – Collegio Carlo Alberto
Dina Moawad
University of Gastronomic Sciences of Pollenzo
The agricultural global value chain involves transforming raw agricultural commodities into edible goods and encompasses a wide array of activities and participants. This consolidated network is vital for economic resilience, particularly in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, where agriculture accounts for a significant portion of GDP.
Cereals, as a key component of the value chain, highlight the importance of this sector in maintaining global food security. Cereal production and maintenance are multi-process endeavours, from production to processing, each with its own set of challenges and opportunities for innovation. The dynamics of this chain underline the need for effective mechanisms to mitigate external shocks, such as climate change and geopolitical conflicts, which have a significant impact on cereal production.
Countries in the MENA region are particularly vulnerable to international shocks in cereal markets due to their heavy reliance on imports to meet domestic food demand. A comprehensive understanding of these external shocks, underlying stressors and appropriate coping strategies is crucial — especially for public authorities, who play a central role in designing effective policy responses.
Climate change has made food production more difficult.
Soil degradation, caused by urbanization, population
growth and unsustainable practices, adds further strain
to MENA countries’ agricultural potential.
Government policies play a crucial role in shaping the economic viability of cereal production, influencing farmer incomes and market stability, while trade policies, such as tariff and non-tariff measures can impact cereal prices and market competitiveness.
Therefore, government interventions are critical for creating a supportive environment for cereal production and ensuring the economic well-being of farmers. For instance, to tackle the recent drop in cereal production, particularly in wheat, the Moroccan government increased subsidies on wheat and barley seeds, causing prices to drop by five and three percent, respectively, compared to 2024, with the aim of encouraging domestic production and stabilizing prices, given the higher exposure to foreign markets as a result of lower internal cereal yield.
This article aligns with the objectives of the STAPLES Project (STable food Access and Prices and Lower Exposure to Shocks), which aims to support the development of resilience strategies in the MENA region. The project focuses on generating, organizing and sharing evidence-based insights on external stressors and shocks originating from global cereal value chains, with particular attention to Morocco and Egypt — two of the region’s largest cereal importers and most exposed food systems.
Heavy reliance on a few foreign suppliers to meet high cereal demand, as in Egypt’s case, creates significant vulnerability to external shocks and price volatility. Rising global food prices and supply shortages drive up domestic inflation, undermining the purchasing power of low-income households and deepening food insecurity.
To reduce this dependency, governments must promote sustainable food production. This involves increasing domestic output through smart water management, green energy and climate-smart agriculture — including precision techniques and the sustainable intensification of strategic crops to build resilience against climate change.
