Cereal trade in MENA countries (1995–2023)
This deliverable is a report that presents a statistical and network-based analysis of cereal value chains in six Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries—Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia—over the period 1995–2023. The analysis examines exports, imports, the main cereal products traded, and their trading partners as well as the composition of trade patterns across different levels of cereal processing (unprocessed, semi-processed, and processed cereals).
Over the past two decades, all six countries have consistently recorded trade deficits in cereals. Imports are dominated by unprocessed cereals, which represent the main category of imports in most of the economies analysed followed by processed cereals. However, in this latter category, the MENA countries under examination show significant export potential, having a comparative advantage in these categories of products.
Similar results are observed for semi-processed cereals, with the exception of Morocco. These patterns suggest that along the cereals value chain MENA countries occupy different positions in global markets.
High dependence on a small number of suppliers
The analysis shows a high level of import market concentration. In 2023, between 40% and more than 69% of cereal imports—respectively for Jordan and Egypt—came from the top three supplying countries.
Although concentration levels are high across all countries analysed, trends differ. Since 2010, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco have experienced a decline in import concentration, while Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia have seen an increase.
The report also highlights a high concentration of supplying-countries across different levels of cereal processing—unprocessed, semi-processed, and processed cereals—during the period 2010–2023.
Moreover, a product-level ranking is provided for the same period to identify which cereals mainly drive this strong concentration in imports.
Trade network structure and import dependence
Network analysis of cereal trade flows shows that several of the analysed countries exhibit relatively high centrality in the import network, although their share in global trade is generally small and often concentrated around a limited number of hubs. This position reflects a low diversification of foreign sourcing rather than a position of strategic influence in the network.
Such dependence on cereal imports increases MENA countries’ exposure to external shocks, including trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related supply constraints. This vulnerability is further reinforced by the fact that many key suppliers are located in geopolitically sensitive regions, such as Ukraine and Russia.
Implications for cereal supply chains in the MENA region
Cereals represent a central component of diets in the MENA region, with wheat accounting for more than half of total calorie intake in many countries. However, arid climate conditions, limited arable land, and water scarcity constrain domestic agricultural production, making the region highly dependent on cereal imports.
This dependence makes cereal supply chains particularly sensitive to global market volatility and supply disruptions, as highlighted by recent crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and climate-related shocks.
Next steps in the analysis
The current report represents an intermediate step in the analysis. The next version of the deliverable will include revisions to the HS codes used in the classification, as well as adjustments to the time period considered and the number of the economies included, in order to maintain a consistent sample over time, as briefly illustrated in the D1.4.
It will be also considered the use of current USD values as well as trade volumes to improve comparability over time. In addition, a deeper analysis of the most significant trade patterns identified in the present report will be conducted to provide a clearer global perspective on these trade transactions.
Finally, it is planned to strengthen the descriptive network analysis by incorporating further topological indicators.
An overview of the project context of the deliverable
The analysis of cereal trade in the MENA region is part of a broader project framework focused on understanding trade structures, value chains, and systemic vulnerabilities in strategic sectors. Within this context, cereals represent a critical case study due to their central role in food security and their high relevance in international trade dynamics.
The project adopts a data-driven approach, combining statistical analysis and network-based methods to examine how trade flows evolve over time, how countries participate in global and regional value chains, and how concentration patterns shape exposure to external shocks. By analysing disaggregated trade data across different levels of processing, the project aims to identify structural features that influence resilience and dependency within supply chains.
In regions characterized by persistent trade deficits, high import dependence, and exposure to geopolitical and climate-related risks, understanding the structure of supply networks becomes essential. The cereal sector in the selected MENA countries provides a concrete example of how trade concentration, supplier dependence, and network centrality can translate into systemic vulnerability.
Through this analytical framework, the project contributes to evidence-based discussions on diversification, supply chain robustness, and long-term resilience, supporting a clearer understanding of structural trade dependencies and their implications.
This deliverable was carried out within the framework of the STAPLES project, part of the PRIMA Programme, supported by the European Union under Grant Agreement No. 2333. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the PRIMA Foundation or the European Union, and neither of them can be held responsible for the information contained.
