New insights into unprocessed cereal trade exchanges: a focus on MENA countries
January 2026
STAPLES partner Collegio Carlo Alberto (CCA) published its latest article, summarising the progress achieved within the Work Package named “Understanding external stressors and shocks”, carried out in collaboration with the Economic Research Forum (ERF), under the PRIMA Partnership Programme.
Building on the first article produced by Collegio Carlo Alberto (CCA) and titled “Analytical study of the global agri-food value chains“—which presented an initial assessment of the composition of global cereal value chains, the degree of import concentration in the MENA region, and its vulnerability to external trade shocks—the new article introduces several important refinements to the static network analysis of unprocessed cereals trade over the period 2000–2023, originally presented for six Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia).
The work, titled “New insights into unprocessed cereals trade exchanges: a focus on MENA countries”, co-authored by Dr. Iacopo Maria Taddei, Prof. Giorgia Giovannetti, and Prof. Alessia Amighini (CCA), provides a snapshot of how trade relationships in unprocessed cereals have evolved during the two most recent major crises—the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine—and how these shocks have reshaped trade networks and cluster composition across the region.
Refined analytical framework
The refinements of the new analysis enhance cross-country and intertemporal comparability of centrality indicators, improve the clarity and interpretability of graphical representations, and allow the identification of the community structure of the unprocessed cereals network, restricted for illustrative purposes to the MENA and European regions. The analysis now focuses on the period 2000–2023 while preserving high global coverage, incorporating more than 200 countries that recorded at least one bilateral trade flow in each year of the unprocessed cereals network under review.
Graphical analysis of trade networks
The article introduces updated and more detailed graphical visualizations of the initial structure of the global trade network and of the MENA region during major recent crises—namely the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. These visualizations are used to track changes in the world’s main exporters and importers of unprocessed cereals, as well as shifts in the composition of MENA countries’ trade partners following these shocks.
Main findings
The analysis presented shows that international trade in unprocessed cereals has undergone profound structural changes between 2000 and 2023, with particularly significant implications for MENA countries. The increased concentration of global supply and the reduced role of the United States have been accompanied by the growing centrality of new export hubs, especially in Eastern Europe. Recent crises—most notably the war in Ukraine—have accelerated the reconfiguration of trade networks, increasing MENA countries’ reliance on regionally concentrated suppliers and heightening their exposure to geopolitical shocks.
